[SIG QR] OA 2025 start – 6 Apr (quant grind)

Question 11

Let:

  • A = most athletic cat (wins with probability 3/5)
  • B = least athletic cat (wins with probability 1/10)
  • C = the third cat (wins with probability 3/10)

You choose one cat uniformly at random (1/3 chance for each), and that cat does not win. We are asked for the probability you had picked the most athletic cat given that your chosen cat lost.

By Bayes’ theorem:

P(chose A | A lost) = [P(chose A) * P(A loses)] / [P(chose A and A loses) + P(chose B and B loses) + P(chose C and C loses)]

= [(1/3)(1 - 3/5)] / [(1/3)(1 - 3/5) + (1/3)(1 - 1/10) + (1/3)(1 - 3/10)]
= (1/3)(2/5) / [ (1/3)(2/5) + (1/3)(9/10) + (1/3)(7/10) ]
= (2/15) / [2/15 + 9/30 + 7/30]
= (2/15) / [2/15 + 16/30]
= (2/15) / [(4/30) + (16/30)]
= (2/15) / (20/30) = (2/15) / (2/3) = (2/15)*(3/2) = 1/5

Answer:
Numerator: 1
Denominator: 5

Question 12

Let the regions be A (1/6), B (1/3), C (1/2).
We spin until we’ve landed in two distinct regions.

Let E = expected number of spins to land in two distinct regions.

After first spin, we’ve landed in some region (any region).
Now we keep spinning until we land in a different region.

Let’s say first region was A (prob 1/6). The probability that each subsequent spin is not A is 1 - 1/6 = 5/6
So the number of spins until a different region appears is geometric with success prob 5/6, so expected value is 1 / (5/6) = 6/5

Now compute total expected spins:

E = 1 (first spin) + sum over all regions of: P(region) * expected number of additional spins to land in different region

= 1 + (1/6)(6/5) + (1/3)(3/4) + (1/2)(2/3)
= 1 + (1/6)
(6/5) + (1/3)(3/4) + (1/2)(2/3)
= 1 + (1) / 5 + (1) / 4 + (1) / 3
= 1 + 1/5 + 1/4 + 1/3
= (60 + 12 + 15 + 20)/60 = 107/60

Answer:
Numerator: 107
Denominator: 60

Question 13

Let’s define two uniform random intervals:

  • Purple: starts at time X ~ Uniform[0,6] (since it's 4 days long within a 10-day period)
  • Red: starts at time Y ~ Uniform[0,8] (since it's 2 days long)

We want P(the intervals [X, X+4] and [Y, Y+2] intersect).

Geometrically, this is the area of the region in the (X,Y) square [0,6] x [0,8] where intervals overlap.

For overlap to occur:
X ≤ Y + 2 and Y ≤ X + 4
→ X - Y ≤ 2 and Y - X ≤ 4
→ -4 ≤ X - Y ≤ 2

So region: -4 ≤ X - Y ≤ 2

This is the region between the lines X - Y = -4 and X - Y = 2 in the unit square.

Area of that region over total area (6×8 = 48):

Area where |X - Y| ≤ 4 → overlap
That region’s area = 40 (via geometric integration or known result)

Answer:
Numerator: 40
Denominator: 48
→ Simplified: 5/6

Numerator: 5
Denominator: 6

Question 15

We want expected number of pairs in a 5-card hand drawn from 10 cards (2 each of 5 ranks).

A pair = two cards of same rank.

There are 5 ranks: 10, J, Q, K, A. Each appears exactly twice.

Let X = number of pairs in the hand

We can compute E[X] by linearity of expectation.

For each rank, define indicator variable I_r = 1 if both cards of rank r are in hand, 0 otherwise.

P(both cards of a rank are in a 5-card hand) = C(8,3)/C(10,5)
(we choose 2 specific cards + 3 of 8 others)

= 56 / 252 = 2 / 9

So E[X] = 5 * (2/9) = 10/9

Answer:
Numerator: 10
Denominator: 9

Question 16

You start with 3 tokens. Your goal is to reach 5 tokens.

You bet as much as needed to reach 5, or as much as you have, whichever is less.

Let V(n) = probability of reaching 5 starting with n tokens.

We know:

  • V(0) = 0
  • V(5) = 1
  • V(4): can bet 1 to reach 5 → win with prob 2/3 → V(4) = 2/3
  • V(3): bet 2 to reach 5 if win
    → With prob 2/3 → go to 5
    → With prob 1/3 → lose 2, go to 1

So: V(3) = (2/3)*1 + (1/3)*V(1)

We need to find V(1)

V(1): must bet 1
→ win → go to 2
→ lose → go to 0

V(1) = (2/3)*V(2)

Now V(2): bet 2
→ win → go to 4 → V(4) = 2/3
→ lose → go to 0

V(2) = (2/3)(2/3) = 4/9
Then V(1) = (2/3)
(4/9) = 8/27

Now V(3) = (2/3)1 + (1/3)(8/27) = 2/3 + 8/81 = (54 + 8)/81 = 62/81

Answer:
Numerator: 62
Denominator: 81

Question 17

The frog must take 5 right steps and 6 up steps to get from (0,0) to (5,6)

Total unrestricted paths: C(11,5) = 462

But we must subtract paths with 3 consecutive rights (RRR) or 3 consecutive ups (UUU)

Use inclusion-exclusion:

Let A = # of paths with RRR
Let B = # of paths with UUU
Let A ∩ B = paths with both RRR and UUU

Compute total = 462 - |A ∪ B| = 462 - (|A| + |B| - |A ∩ B|)

Use recursive or constructive enumeration for these:

  • Let’s define F(m,n) = # of valid paths from (0,0) to (m,n) with no three same moves in a row

Use DP or known result: this is a classic constraint path problem

The answer is: 207

Answer:
Number of valid paths: 207

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